Figure out the real reason a deal actually closed or didn't
The reason a prospect gives for saying no is often more polite than accurate, and the real reason a deal closed can be just as easy to misread.
- Use it for
- Salespeople doing an honest post-mortem on a deal that just closed or fell through.
Whatever a prospect says about why a deal closed or didn't is real data, but it's not automatically the full or accurate story — a lost deal's stated reason ("budget") is often a polite deflection for something less comfortable to say directly, and a won deal's stated reason can just as easily be a convenient narrative rather than the actual deciding factor. This prompt looks past the stated reason for what plausibly actually drove the outcome.
When not to use this
If you already have unusually direct, candid feedback from the prospect that you're confident is accurate, this second-guessing isn't necessary.
Did this work?
You have a specific, honest read on what actually drove the outcome, not just the stated reason the prospect gave you.
Tested on claude-opus-5. Evidence status is draft; it moves to battle-tested only on recorded runs, never by hand.